Exploring the Chance Quality Index: Why more chances doesn’t necessarily mean more goals

March 29, 2012

Karthik (KV) seeks to establish why more chances don’t necessarily mean more goals.

How do you win a football game? The simplest answer would be to score more goals than the other team. So, how do you score more goals than the other team? Create more chances than the other team and you are likely to score more than them. How accurate is that statement? Not very accurate, in fact. What we can conclude with certainty is that, the team that creates chances of higher quality is likely to score more compared to the other team.

At every press conference that Arsene Wenger has had to attend in the past few years, he would respond to the customary question on possible transfers by stating that he always opts for ‘quality over quantity.’ Signing a player of top quality is more important than signing 3-4 players just to fill the void. We can apply the same principle to chances created. The probability of scoring from a chance of very high quality is more compared to scoring from three chances of mediocre quality. For better clarity, OPTA describes a chance as ‘assists plus key passes.’ Is it possible to measure the quality of a chance? Yes, that is what I have tried to do in the following lines.

The factors affecting the quality of a chance are:

Distance from the goal
The angle by which the goal is visible.
The number of opponent players surrounding the player with the ball.

Based on this, we can say that Chance Quality is:

Inversely proportional to the distance from goal.
Inversely proportional to the number of opponent players surrounding the player taking the shot.
Inversely proportional to angle A as shown.

C.Q.I can be a vital stat because it corresponds directly to goals. The team that scores more wins the match, thus the probability of a team with a high C.Q.I winning the game is very high.

Therefore,

C.Q.I = cos(A)/D*P

Where, A is the angle between the line joining the centres of the two goals and the line joining the centre of the goal to the point from where the shot is taken. D is the distance between the centre of the goal and the point from where the shot is taken. P is the number of opposition players close to the player when the shot was taken. It is to be noted that Cos of the angle A is taken because, due to the property of the Cos function, as A increases, Cos(A) decreases and that is exactly what we need.

The Ade”Can’t hit a barn door”bayor problem:

If you rewind a few seasons back to the 2008-09 season, you would realize that Arsenal lost 6 games, drew 12 and finished fourth. Teams that we lost to included Fulham, Hull City, Aston Villa and Manchester City. All of them won by a one goal margin (except for Man City) and all the games were dominated by Arsenal, in regards to possession. The number of shots taken by Arsenal also outnumbered the other teams, but the other teams just sat deep and chose the right moment to counter attack and create chances which had a high C.Q.I rating (statistics have shown that 43% of the chances created from transitions get converted to goals). At that time, everyone were busy criticizing the finishing of the Arsenal strikers like Emmanuel Adebayor and the inability of our defensive midfielders to stop perform better and not concede(Alex Song and Denilson), when the actual problem was that Arsenal lacked the creative firepower to breakdown teams and create high quality chances. A study on the recently concluded Barca-Milan game showed that, while Barca dominated possession(65%) and had 18 shots on target compared to Milan’s six, Milan had the best opportunity to score in the game, with a shot that had a C.Q.I rating of 0.08(which looks like a small number, but is actually higher than other shots).

The only shot off target by Milan proved pivotal - it was the best chance of the game, missed by Robinho with no defenders in front.

How can the C.Q.I be of help?

A higher C.Q.I pass means a better chance of scoring. So, players who create more number of C.Q.I passes are extremely valuable to the team. For example, in the Barca-Milan game, Xavi, Messi and Dani Alves created chances with high C.Q.I rating and they were also the best players on the pitch. It can also be used to analyse games and bring about changes. Iniesta wasn’t creating much, so Rodrigo Tello came on and immediately created a chance with a fairly high C.Q.I rating. It can even help develop tactics. For instance, we know that counter attacks tend to result in goals 43% of the time, so it makes sense to leave a player that creates high C.Q.I chances high up the pitch (like Messi). ‘The Invincibles’ Arsenal team had great players like Dennis Bergkamp, Thierry Henry and Robert Pires who created chances with high C.Q.I and won games playing counter attacking football.

Conclusion

So often coaches have bemoaned the loss of a game which they felt they had deserved but succumbed because the other team just purely finished their chances. It happened last night with Barcelona claiming they should have won when in fact, they failed to create a better chance than Milan which was fired over by Robinho early on. Indeed, one article after the game questioned why Robinho regularly gets picked even though he hits the target with 44% of his shots and misses some great chances to boot (Ibrahimovic has 60%; El Shaarawy’s, Pato 52%). (As it turned out, the author concluded that goals are not everything as Robinho causes trouble with his movement – and that’s what creates chances for Milan).

While in it’s infancy (give us the funding!), Chance Quality Index has it’s merits if anything to challenge the established conceptions of chances and the likelihood of winning a game. Indeed, it was Wenger who once remarked, “the measure of football is the ratio of chances created to chances conceded” and that he concluded means Arsenal deserve to win the game as they have dominated. This is surely dependent on the quality of chances you create, is it not?

If that is true, however, then Arsenal should follow the route of Barcelona who believe possession is “nine-tenths” of the game. That should ensure Arsenal keep down the number of shots they concede which is currently at 10 per game in the league (and consequently, help them press better) – Barcelona’s is 7 despite both teams creating on average 17 shots per game. But that is patently not Arséne Wenger’s style as he says he’d rather a player who takes in a risk in their passing in the final third than play it safe – for Barcelona, it’s all about the quality of the chance. Wenger prefers urgency and while we are seeing a better drilled Arsenal this part of the season, the fact that they have gone down in half of the games recently, shows there’s gaps in the system.

It’s unfortunate Milan-Barcelona yielded no goals; it seemed the perfect encounter to experiment CQI because it carried with it, the old adage that possession (for Barcelona) should equal chances and consequently, a win – but that’s not necessarily the case. In fact, good chances are harder to come by when defences defend deep as Milan did because the attacking team is hindered by a lack of time and space. Milan on the other hand, had less chances but the best one on the night as Robinho fired over. Had the chance fell to Ibrahimovic, it might have gone in. That’s one of the issues with C.Q.I; it’s still subjective as much as it tries to quantify the art of the chance. Because some players are much more composed in front of goal. Take for instance, Thierry Henry’s goal against Leeds in the FA Cup; for some players, the chance may be harder due to the angle, the defender haring down on Henry’s back and not to mention the technique. But such was the familiarity of him in that position, it was almost a 10 out of 10 chance. It’s notable that in the game against Milan, coincidentally enough, Wenger altered the system so Henry could get into such situations. But it’s probably not the varying expertise of the player taking the shot that’s most important with the Henry chance; sometimes the angled shot IS the optimal way to score.

Back to the goalless draw at the San Siro, Pep Guardiola might have argued that his side deserved to win but Milan might have been the most aggrieved as a shot in the third minute flew over. It proved pivotal.

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Arsenal 3-0 Aston Villa: Defenders lead the way forward

March 26, 2012

This post first appeared on Arsenal Insider

If, as the orange and black banner draped against the North Stand is correct, and Robin van Persie does score “when he wants”, it was evidently his day off as he left it to the others to get the goals. On the face of it, perhaps it was a good thing as it showed Arsenal are not so reliant on Robin van Persie and Arsène Wenger indicated as much, although he would have wanted van Persie to continue his goalscoring form and thus kept him on until the end. But when Kieran Gibbs opened the scoring, the most surprising thing wasn’t the fact that he had scored but that it was Arsenal 17th different goalscorer in the Premier League – more than any other team. What reliance on van Persie?

Of course, that would be missing the point as Arsenal have hugely been dependent on their captain and as Gibbs scored, it merely confirmed what Arsenal had been missing for much of the season – a coherent squad and chiefly the presence of full-backs. Because, not having recognised full-backs on the pitch has affected Arsenal tactically and therefore forced them to play in a different way. (In one sense, perhaps Wenger is culpable as he could have altered his team’s shape). At the beginning of the season, having lost both Samir Nasri and Cesc Fábregas and then Jack Wilshere through injury, Arsenal switched emphasis towards the flanks. When the full-backs quickly succumbed to injury, Arsenal were not able to produce the same combinations that we are regularly seeing now between Bacary Sagna and Theo Walcott and Gibbs and Gervinho as they showed for the first goal, thus they tried to force they through the centre. It’s no coincidence, then, Arsenal’s fluency suffered in that period. Now, as Wenger says, there is “a more variation in our build-up play and therefore we are more dangerous as well.” And when Theo Walcott scored the second to essentially confirm the win when The Gunners completely dominated, each part of Arsenal’s game finally fell into place. Because, that type of goal is how Wenger has always wanted to score and quietly, he will be disappointed that it hasn’t more often. Not the pass from Alex Song, which he has been doing all season, but the penetrative ball behind the full-back, which Arsenal made a trademark of last season, and which seemed a perfect fir for the three-striker system.

Speaking of plans, Wenger also feels the team has come out of their shell in recent weeks and that’s because they are clearer of their game. Indeed, he indicates the early season form and tactics they used may have been dictated by the unfortunate circumstances they were in and thus had to play more cautiously (think about how their pressing had changed and the run of eight games unbeaten from October to mid-December where they almost exclusively dealt in low scores). ”Since then [defeats to Fulham/Swansea],” said Wenger, “we have more options and a bit better plan. That has allowed the team to feel more confident.”

Their new-found exuberance can be typified by the way in which Kieran Gibbs was allowed to get forward against Aston Villa and previously against Everton although when he did, Arsenal also left themselves open. Luckily for Arsenal, Alex Song has been on standby as cover in recent games and has had to drop back into his spaces more frequently. It’s an area Arsenal can still improve on as pushing two full-backs forward can cause undue strain on the back, not to mention when your centre-back also decides to join in the attack, and they looked slightly vulnerable on the break.

Nevertheless, defenders are crucial in developing a fluent attacking game and Arsenal often seek to take advantage, as they look to free them in the build up depending on who they are playing (against a 4-5-1, centre-backs become key while versus a two-man attack, the full-backs are usually the ones who receive it from the back first. Aston Villa made it easy because they dropped deep and allowed Arsenal time to play it out). “When we did not win games [earlier in the season], I did not feel we played as badly as people said. We have gained a lot of confidence in our play out from the back and that makes a massive difference,” said Wenger. “The defenders who play out from the back give us a security now and that allows the team to be much more confident.”

The fate of Arsenal’s season has usually suffered from the absence of quality defenders; this season, their presence has reignited them.

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Six points on Arsenal 2-1 Newcastle United

March 14, 2012

1. We’re witnessing the real Arsenal now

Some of the crowd left early but for the rest who stayed, there was a sense of expectedness about Arsenal’s last-minute winner. It came in the fifth minute of injury time as Thomas Vermaelen bundled in a cross from Theo Walcott; never mind that it came from the right-hand side or that Vermaelen constantly got forward, this was another example of Arsenal’s mental strength. With the victory, Arsenal have become the first Premier League side to win four consecutive matches having fallen behind initially. Perhaps, it’s not the most desired recognition because it means Arsenal have teething issues within but for a club which hasn’t consistently faltered in the final stages in the last few season, this shows a quality which Arsenal have, in the past, lacked.

But back to the deficiencies and it seems The Gunners can’t seem to find a balance between their typical “gung-ho” style and playing a little bit cautiousness from the start. Indeed, it must be noted that when they went unbeaten in eight games from October to mid-December, Arsenal typically won by low scores, usually delivered by Robin van Persie. Against Newcastle United, van Persie wasn’t required to be at his best (although his movement continues to be superb) and it was the same against Milan but Arsenal still produced a performance of great character and substance. Perhaps Arsenal are finally coming to their own with only 3rd place to concentrate on. Because now they can take the risks that their play wants as they know they have more recovery time if they expend all their energy. And certainly, it showed as Arsenal pressed more proactively against Newcastle than they generally have this season, usually winning the ball higher up the pitch.

Arsenal's zealousness can be shown by where they won the ball and subsequently the fouls they made - which were generally up the pitch. In that instance, Tomas Rosicky was key in setting Arsenal's tempo when the ball was turned-over, contributing to nine of the tackles and interceptions Arsenal made.

In the match programme, Arsène Wenger said that Arsenal ”can play at a pace that, arguably, nobody (else) can sustain” and as we’ve seen this season, that involves taking full advantage of the side’s speed. In a sense, the game reasserted the new way Arsenal look to break down sides now, shorn of a central creative figure like Jack Wilshere of Cesc Fábregas, as they’re always looking for the quick release behind otherwise, everything goes down the flanks. Theo Walcott was superb, dovetailing with Bacary Sagna while van Persie’s movement was always sought, either from a ball over the top or through by Alex Song or a cross from out wide. But the reason why Arsenal have found such a holistic style this late in the season, might probably fall down to the fact that the team is now settling into habitual patterns and the cautiousness that we saw early season, having stemmed from a certain unfamiliarity with each other. Because, as much as the signings might have been reactionary, it takes a lot more time and integration to alter mindsets and get a team to properly know each other and finally, Arsenal look in tune.

Arsenal produce 9.4 successful dribbles per game – the most of any club in England.

— Arsenal Statman (@ArsenalPortal) March 12, 2012

2. Arsenal profit from a right-side bias

Tactically, much of Arsenal’s success came from the flanks, especially on the right-hand side. Arsenal gave a glimpse of that tactic early on, by aiming goal-kicks at Bacary Sagna and twice he freed Theo Walcott behind. The focus on that side – as it has been for much of the season – was paying off as Jonas Gutierrez was often forced all the way back and even as the defensive winger, he was not getting any joy out of it. Theo Walcott dovetailed with Sagna superbly as they constantly took on their man and aimed in crosses – most encouragingly, low ones too. On the other side, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, couldn’t force himself into the game as Tomáš Rosický – the midfielder who tends to drift left – was similarly dragged to the right. Indeed, it was more discernible on Monday night that Arsenal favour the right side because of the pace of their attacks but this season, the majority of play has tended to operate towards that side. (The season average is at 37% for attacks origination from the right, and 30% from the left).

3. Van Persie scores when he wants

Arsenal only needed a minute to cancel out Newcastle’s goal with Robin van Persie putting the finishing touches to a equally swift move. Actually, it required three touches to be precise and each one was as devastating as it was expert; his first was to kill off Theo Walcott’s fizzing cross and open up his body, his second to take it away from the defender and the third, a powerful shot into the corner. The nature of Arsenal’s winner overshadowed the quality of the first and again van Persie showed why he is the best striker in the world at the moment. Indeed, his evolution is slightly going against convention in the fact that he’s playing more conventionally because the two best players in the world, Ronaldo and Messi, have scored all their goals unorthodox roles. It must be admired then, how van Persie has refined his game to resist his natural urges to continually drop deep and now all his instincts have gone towards getting onto the final ball. His movement was superb – wizardy almost – as he continuously spun off his marker to find space. Michael Williamson will attest to that when he was beaten for the first.

4. Newcastle’s approach

Considering that Newcastle United won so many aerial duels (19/28 although Demba Ba never won it in the box and while when they did, it was through a predetermined set-piece aimed at Williamson), it poses the question why they didn’t play two forwards. Of course, that would mean ceding a centre-midfield which they probably wouldn’t have won any way but it would have always gave them an outlet to get away from the battle in the centre. Cheik Tiote did a good job moving the ball and closing Arsenal down but whenever he did get it forward, attacks often broke down straight away. And that’s because Arsenal squeezed the play well and won the ball back quickly. However, by choosing to go one forward and Gabriel Obertan operating off Ba, they played into Arsenal’s hand as Laurent Koscielny in particular, got to the ball first constantly while, as we’re going to find out, it meant Vermaelen could get forward often without being a danger to his team (although the winner came when Newcastle switched to a 4-4-2).

5. Alex Song and Mikel Arteta switch roles

As Arsenal looked to press higher, Alex Song was used mainly in a box-to-box role. The truth is, that has been almost his default role this season as he has delivered some telling assists while Mikel Arteta dropped back naturally to pick up possession. But here, Song clearly started off with the brief to try and win the ball back higher up. Arteta on the other hand, kept the ball moving from deep, completing a weighty 52 passes in the first half. In the second half, Song dropped back while Arteta probed. But the Spaniard rarely uses his passing to penetrate and for a while, it looked like his technical ability would be better suited in a more advanced role. As it was, Song broke from his shackles and gave the drive for the move that eventually led to the winner.

6. Thomas Vermaelen leads the way forward

Barcelona’s use of midfielders in the backline points to a wider trend – that of a move to a purer game. Defenders are now required to have an almost faultless technical ability as they tend to have most of the ball and thus start attacks. With Vermaelen though, the centre-back offers more than playmaking because he’s also a goal-threat. So often in the game, he pushed up looking for that space to run into while Song dropped back. And often he was forced to abort his run as Newcastle blocked off the space. But he broke forward in the last minute – strode rather – while the rest ran full-bloodedly into the box. His movement is often superb and it’s no surprise that he found the ball at the back post unmarked – he already has two to his name from such runs and assisted Arteta against Wigan. Indeed, with Arsenal’s game seeking to give as much space to the centre-backs in the build up and the fact that they are usually the “spare” man, it can be such a dangerous weapon. Of course, it carries it’s inherent weaknesses but when you can get forward unmarked – and let’s face it, the striker will rarely track the centre-back – it can be a match-winner. Which it turned out to be.

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Arsenal 3-0 Milan: Arsenal’s spirit proves that the dog days are nearly over

March 7, 2012

As the half-time whistle blew, Laurent Koscielny slumped down with his hand on his knees, in his mind still chasing the loose ball with Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Tomáš Rosický ruffled his hair and looked around; all his team-mates were doing the same and all telepathically asking the same question: “is this really happening? Are we actually going to do this?” The truth probably lay in their reactions, frantically searching for their next breath. They had just made the improbable possible – heck, they even looked favourites to win the tie now – but they had given so much and expended so much energy in one half. At 45 minutes, the distance covered count read Arsenal 56756 metres, Milan 52803 metres. (In comparison, Milan ran 55km at the San Siro and Arsenal 53km). They were also so clinical, so calculated that they couldn’t keep this up in the second-half. Arsenal’s statistics read like a vector graphic: 5 shots, 4 on target, 3 goals, 2 cards, 1 half.

Yet, whatever happened in the second-half, there was a feeling this would still be the defining match of The Emirates Stadium. In an age where football is becoming more business-like, fans are finding it ever difficult to relate to the men on the pitch. Tickets were given up even before kick-off but the true fans remained. They sung and encouraged the players and the players in turn, delivered a passionate performance, chasing every ball and crucially playing with a calm head too to, not only go in at half-time 3-0 in front, but having not conceded also. The platform was in place for a momentous evening.

As it was, Milan came out in the second-half and showed all their continental nous, keeping the ball for lengthy periods and as Arsenal tired, constantly broke up any momentum that was created. They gave Arsenal one real chance in the second-half and that fell to Robin van Persie who, with the goalkeeper in front of him, tried to lift it over him. Christian Abbiati lifted up his hand and stopped it going in. That was on 60 minutes and while Milan had a few of better opportunities – Stephan El Shaaraway shooting wide just before half-time, Zlatan Ibrahimovic gifted a chance and Antonio Nocerino missing an open goal – those missed chances didn’t even themselves out with van Persie’s. Arsenal were looking for a breather and that goal would have provided them that respite to drop deep. Instead, The Gunners had to plough on for a fourth; Arsène Wenger threw on all his strikers in an attempt to salvage extra-time while Alex Song, who tried to do everything himself in the first-half, was forced to do everything himself in the second as his partner in crime, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain succumbed to injury.

In the end, Arsenal lacked sufficient energy and the creativity to pull out the great escape. At the final whistle, Laurent Koscielny slumped down with his hand on his knees, Tomáš Rosický ruffled his hair and eventually dropped to the ground. Robin van Persie looked around in disbelief but thanked the supporters in believing anyway. And Wenger went on his customary rant at the referee chasing the metaphoric light down the tunnel. (Sky Italia’s pitchside reporter actually reported that the referee ran off down the tunnel shouting ”Don’t touch me! Don’t touch me!” at Wenger!)

For Arsenal, it had started so well but petered into the game that many had predicted beforehand. In the first-half, Arsenal gave a fine demonstration of their attacking capabilties, pressing Milan up the pitch and then breaking with devastating speed. The left-back, Djamel Mesbah, had an uncomfortable evening as everything came down his side while Rosicky and Oxlade-Chamberlain typified Arsenal’s maturity with a cool-headed display and passed the ball with conviction. Indeed, the injury to Oxlade-Chamberlain early in the second-half probably ended Arsenal’s chances of a fightback as he was disciplined and excellent positionally, allowing Song to get forward and break up the play but suddenly, BAM! he went on a wonderful run to win Arsenal a penalty. In that moment, he showed Arsenal just why they have missed Jack Wilshere, with Wenger telling Sky Italia: “We should have put more drive and intensity in the 2nd half, but our legs went because we played so hard in the 1st half.”

Even if the result wasn’t ultimately satisfactory, the performance was as the team answered all the questions that was asked of them before the game. Most pleasing was Arsenal’s defensive organisation which was superb throughout considering they had to “go for it.” In particular, Laurent Koscielny rose to the occasion once again in a big game but they looked like a unit once more; the nine offsides they won was an indictment of their cohesion. But there were still some questions left to answer after the win; does this team need to be unshackled and be forced into taking creative risks to play at it’s best? And considering how difficult that is to sustain as shown by the second-half, it’s not a reasonable request to expect them to play like this all the time. Of course, the core theme of the game is what they should take as the reference point for the rest of the season; the togetherness, cohesion, the conviction in attack and the perfect execution of the game plan – and this was probably the first game in the season that Robin van Persie wasn’t required to be at his best. And looking at it from a universalistic point of view, this team has actually remained very consistent throughout this season if not spectacular although it needs a couple of creative players if it wants to play as the manager wants to. Wenger was about to introduce rookie, Oguzhan Ozyakup, to regain some control but as he waited for Oxlade-Chamberlain to shake off his knock, it became too late and he was forced to throw another striker on. The balance was lost as soon as Oxlade-Chamberlain felt the effects of the flu he was suffering on the eve of the game.

Andrey Arshavin might have made a difference but it must be remembered, that he made an ultimately selfish decision to leave. Now the irony is, his form will be under more scrutiny in front of his native people’s eyes in Russia. The other irony for Arsenal was that Robin van Persie, so often making the habit of scoring the easy way this season, opted for the chip. Abbiati read it and pulled off the save to stop Arsenal completing the great escape. Nevertheless, the image may serve as a symbolic moment of this team’s potential; the audacity and character to try something special even in the most unlikliest of moments. And for that, there is a need to recognise something exceptional. This team has it.

UEFA.com

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The evolution of Robin van Persie

March 5, 2012

Not a week goes without a prelude to Robin van Persie but every time, he seems to justify it. This week, he single-handedly – well almost as he required wonderful goalkeeping from Wojciech Szczesny and some woeful finishing from Liverpool – earned Arsenal a 2-1 win at Anfield. And again he scored a technically perfect goal. There were some who criticised Pepe Reina for being beaten at the near post but such is his expert technique that he killed the ball dead from Alex Song’s lofted pass to volley pass Reina. His first, however, was a bit more banal but van Persie has made a habit of scoring such goals and that’s significant because a couple of seasons, such a transformation didn’t seem possible.

Van Persie has been crucial to Arsenal even as early as 2005 but his involvement was regularly curtailed by injury; he has only played more than forty games in two seasons. But back then, he was playing as a number 10, the role previously assumed by Dennis Bergkamp. He had the same swivel of the hips, the deliciously dinked passes and the ability to score spectacular goals but many question his maturity. Even so, considering that he was liable to miss matches, some would also question whether playing van Persie in such a crucial position was a wise idea. It needn’t matter because Arséne Wenger thought not to consign him to a number on the pitch. He’s a “football player,” said Wenger. “Who you expect to create something special. You do not think they have to score so many goals, they added that to their game.”

Wenger initially deployed van Persie in 2009, in a roaming capacity in a role nowadays referred to as the “false nine.” It worked a treat but no sooner had van Persie got the hang of it, he succumbed to injury. It wasn’t until 2011 when we saw the best of him again but he had refined his game and has since gone on a superb goalscoring run (currently on 43 league goals in 46 games). Indeed, that has been a rarely-talked about part of van Persie’s evolution: each time Wenger has implemented a series of tactical and strategic changes to their play, van Persie has adapted and yet consistently delivered the goals.

Playing as the false nine in 2009, van Persie brought others into play with his movement which, at the time, was crucial because it allowed those strikers vying with him for a central role to remain involved, Nicklas Bendtner and Eduardo could still play alongside him on the right and left of the attack, respectively. Just as significant, Arsenal no longer required such a tactically demanding player to play alongside Cesc Fábregas; the three man midfield that they used ensured that the multitude of creative players they possessed could be used. When he finally put his injury curse behind him midway through the 2010/11 season, his goalscoring came to the fore, necessary because Arsenal were shorn of their most creative player, Fábregas, and he constantly had to bail out the team out with his spontaneity. And this season, van Persie’s explosiveness typifies Arsenal’s new-found back-to-front directness but were it not for his goals, we’d probably be talking about how monumental a failure the tactic is. Either side of him, Gervinho and Theo Walcott haven’t nearly scored enough goals and as the captain, van Persie is right to deflect attention to their creative output but even Wenger would have expected his three-striker system to yield more goals beyond his talismanic forward. (Wenger: ”We have players who deliver fantastic numbers of assists – I think Gervinho and Walcott are among the best providers in the world if you look at the number of assists. But I know there are more goals in them and I am sure from midfield we need some goals as well. They will be welcome tomorrow.”)

The above reason also serves as another reason why van Persie is a perfect captain for this club, beyond his stature amongst the players, as van Persie’s leadership is also tactical. The Dutchman works so hard to get back into position when the team defends, acting as the reference point for their defensive structure (or the half press which they tend to use). He alludes to this example by action in an interview for Arsenal.com, stating the somewhat obsessive need to perfect his average of 11.5km covered per game. Which, on it’s own, is an extraordinary statistic but even more so because it comes from a striker; normally, you’d expect a midfielder to work as hard as van Persie does. (Van Persie covers the most distance of any player in the Premier League at 6.148 miles per game).

Talk of anyone being the most “complete striker” might seem a bit exaggerated but in van Persie’s case, it’s wholly justified (backed up by Arrigo Sacchi no less, the legendary coach who advocated a universalistic style made by universalistic players). Van Persie’s movement is superb, dragging defenders all over the pitch. Indeed, Jurgen Klopp, Borussia Dortmund’s manager, says he’s “rarely ever seen a player who plays so deep in midfield and then is such a danger in the box.” The coach, in the 3-1 defeat away to Arsenal, promised to stop the supply to van Persie to stop him from scoring but the nature of his play was an altogether unfamiliar threat. Van Persie constantly peels of his marker, whether playing on the shoulder or picking up possession. And if he does pick up the ball around the box, all manner of things can happen – he essentially made the second against Liverpool possible with his movement followed by his excellent technique – which highlights the joy of Robin van Persie at the moment and long may it continue because he’s deserved it.

Van Persie’s evolution can almost be seen as a journey; he has gone from number 11 from his time as a winger for Feyenoord, to a number 10, to a false 9 before making the final transition to where he is now as a number 9. But naturally of course, Robin van Persie says he’s neither; he’s a 9-and-a-half.

Robin Van Persie winner vs Liverpool from Arsenal Goals on Vimeo.

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Yossi Benayoun selection epitomises Arsenal’s philosophy in derby win

February 27, 2012

At 34 minutes, it seemed like the balance of power had indubitably shifted towards the white of North London. 34 minutes later, it had appeared as if it had never moved. Tottenham Hotspur had taken a two goal lead and confirmed that the difference between the swashbuckle of the two sides was the end product. However Arsenal, often too ready to accept their role as beautiful martyrs and they had full right to be aggrieved when they fell behind further to a dubious penalty won by Garethe Bale, did not wallow in their adversity and responded emphatically. Everything went right for them with Arsène Wenger claiming it was a “perfect performance”.

This was how Arsenal always wanted to win. Perhaps it was not part of the plan to fall two goals behind to Tottenham Hotspur but that seems to get the best out of them – they drew inspiration from the 3-2 win against Aston Villa for their latest comeback. But they played with a refreshing desire and togetherness, set on the backdrop of Robin van Persie’s heartfelt promise to fans to expect better in Sunday’s The Sun, that should set the benchmark for a strong end to the season. They’ve felt this before, though, when they defeated Barcelona 2-1 at home but as Paolo Bandini said on Football Weekly, it was probably The Emirates’ “signature moment” as Arsenal delivered a strong performance for lengthy periods. ”Today we gave a performance that on the spirit side, the technical side, the drive of the whole team, on the style of the game we want to play everything was perfect despite a very bad start,” said Arsène Wenger. ”I felt in the first five minutes Tottenham started well, after that it was all us for 85 minutes.”

In some respects, there was nothing new about Arsenal’s performance. In fact, you might even described it as their “gung-ho” style working perfectly because while it, at times, left them exposed at the back, such as the build up for Spurs’ opener, it was the right mix of intensity and technical level. If they want to concede less goals, they’d probably have to demand an even greater share of the possession and/or compress the space quicker when they lose it. Arsenal’s rapid and intense brand of football is resource-heavy and creates undue strain at the back. But as the rest of the game foretold: if Arsenal attack like this, it is their defence. In that sense, it was strange to see Tottenham cut off so much of their attacking threat in the second-half as while they probably did the right thing, congesting the middle of the pitch by moving to a 4-5-1/4-3-2-1 with Gareth Bale and Rafael van der Vaart roaming, it narrowed the space for their key player – Bale, who was superb in the first-half – to cause damage. (And it was even more strange to see him shunted to the right for the majority of the second-half; it was probably a case of Harry Redknapp looking to get more of their best player by giving him freedom but he sacrificed the rest of the team to try and squeeze more out of one).

Arsenal were excellent – pulsating at times. Robin van Persie led by example and he confirmed his status as the most hard-working player in the league with another tireless shift (he runs on average 6.148 miles a game). He dragged Arsenal to their feet when on another day it might have dropped. Certainly, there was a noticeable shift in Arsenal’s mentality while Alex Song could be seen geeing his team up when they fell behind on four minutes. The midfield swirled and snarled at Tottenham’s attackers to try and win the ball back and then kept the ball brilliantly to sustain the pressure. And while Mikel Arteta probed and prompted, Tomáš Rosický gave a direction to Arsenal’s attacks and his goal to put Arsenal in the lead, epitomised their philosophy. As Theo Walcott played the ball into the box following a furious counter-attack, The Gunners had four men waiting to receive the pass.

Talk of “philosophy” implicitly imbues it with a kind of moral superiority that tends to irritate but this performance gave it back to Arsenal when it had seemed as if it had deserted them this season. The selection of Yossi Benayoun epitomised that, signalling Arsenal’s intention and their ideologue for the match. He wasn’t starting by default just because Andrey Arshavin had left. No, this is a player who has finally got his chance – his deserved chance. In his short period at Arsenal, Benayoun has shown a willingness for the fight and a refreshing patience to wait for his opportunity. He scored a header in the last minutes against Aston Villa and the reaction of his team-mates said it all; they were wishing it on him to score. Add to that he was thrown in in not too favourable conditions away to Borussia Dortmund (and Swansea City), in the unfamiliar position of central midfield and was tasked with taking a creative mantle in the Carling Cup. It’s just a shame in the past few seasons, his talent has never been rewarded with starting spots. At Liverpool, he had an in-out relationship with Rafael Benitez while Andre Villas-Boas wasn’t willing to take the punt with him, in either the wide striker roles or in the centre in his 4-3-3. It’s a similar scenario at Arsenal where, if he had come in another season where the ideological slant hadn’t shifted slightly away from the intricate towards the direct, then he surely would have played more often.

Perhaps at first glance, Benayoun’s selection doesn’t seem as significant as it is being made out in this article. But Arsenal have struggled for fluency this season, with Arsène Wenger admitting that the team is a “little bit less good than last year with possession of the ball.” And he has admitted that the three-striker system was almost an experiment; one which has surely now ended or at least, shown it’s limitations against the top sides. “When we played for a long period with Gervinho, Robin van Persie and Theo Walcott we were dangerous, basically, always through our wings, but a little less in control possession wise,” he said. “It was not a conscious thing but it’s just we found Gervinho, who did well, and we tried to find a system that can accommodate Walcott and Gervinho.”

With Arsenal suffering in past derbies from a lack of control, Wenger got it correct tactically by playing the Israeli midfielder. With Benayoun frequently involved in the build up, Arsenal refound their control and swagger. No longer did Robin van Persie remain exclusive to a poacher’s role; he roamed around the pitch, dropped off his marker and was allowed to spontaneous again. His goal to equaliser was the perfect expression of his new-found freedom as he curled the ball into the corner from the edge of the box. And Wenger knew, with Benayoun’s presence as a half-winger on the other side, it would eventually see Theo Walcott come good. Indeed, Arsenal’s set up changed slightly in the second-half with Benayoun tucking in and Alex Song dropping deeper thus allowing Walcott to push up; it’s something they have experimented during Thierry Henry’s brief spell at the club. But with Spurs playing more narrow, it allowed Theo Walcott to get behind constantly and Arsenal’s formation flitted in and out of their 4-3-3 to a slanted 4-4-2. Walcott profited and punished in a match where, not only did Arsenal wrestle back the balance of power back to red and white of North London, but they also rediscovered their identity.

Arsenal 5-2 Tottenham Hotspur: Saha 4, Adebayor (pen) 34, Sagna 40, van Persie 43, Rosicky 51, Walcott 65, Walcott 68.

Some Chalkboards….

1. Arsenal squeeze the space

If Arsenal played with a spirit and desire to get the ball back quickly, it can be showen by the graphic for their interceptions. The ball was rarely won in their defensive third but in the middle third of the pitch. Arsenal began with a fervour and while the lack of interceptions in defence might show how well Tottenham stretched play in the early periods – Arsenal 11 of those interceptions in the first-half alone – it also showed Arsenal’s determination to compress space and play up the pitch. Perhaps Arsenal were a bit nervous at the start abecause once they gained their composure, they were imperious and could sit back and soak Tottenham’s meek pressure. (As ever, click to enlarge).

2. Bacary Sagna v Kieran Gibbs

The return of two natural full-backs saw the return of Arsenal’s right-side bias with 42% of attacks stemming from that side (the average has been 36% down the right and 31% down the left). This means the two full-backs play slightly differently. Bacary Sagna plays a supporting role, always looking to make himself available in possession while Kieran Gibbs is generally more reserved; his forays forward are often more selective (he was involved in the build up for the first, coming forward late).

3. Theo Walcott makes his presence felt in 2nd-half

Wenger admitted he was thinking about taking Theo Walcott off at half-time but decided against it; the momentum was with Arsenal and that increased the likelihood, especially as Spurs might have to push forward now, to release him. It happened – three times in fact – all in the second-half and of course, he got the two goals (and had a 100% pass accuracy too).

And while Tottenham nullified Walcott in the first-half as shown by the tackles on the right, the change of shape in both sides meant that it happened less in the second. Theo Walcott got behind easily as the Spurs formation narrowed.

4. Thomas Vermaelen’s no-nonsense approach

Thomas Vermaelen had a difficult opening period. He was constantly sucked out of position as his impetuousness can often leave him exposed. Too often, he tried to attack the ball too early and Spurs got away on a couple of occasions (although Laurent Koscielny was also guilty of that for the first goal). Vermaelen has played much of his recent games at left-back so over-zealous approach will need time to curb. Nevertheless, he showed that he has the all-round ability to replace Per Mertesacker – who was beginning to come into his own before his injury – as he completed the most clearances for Arsenal – ground and aerial (3/5 headed clearances and 4/4 aerial duels won).

5. Alex Song pivotal

It’s argued Alex Song’s forward runs can sometimes be detrimental to the team balance but that’s untrue because it’s usually selective when he gets up the pitch. This can be shown by the assist he made for Arsenal’s fifth but in the second-half, he almost completely reigned his attacking instincts and just sat in front of the back four – often very deep – to allow the other midfielders to play. He was probably the most underrated of the six attacking players yesterday but just as pivotal.